Black Triangle

I’ve been blogging on the MMR vaccine controversy here since 2003, writing letters to my professional journal about the safety of the vaccine since 2002, and prior to that arguing with kooks on the internet in internet newsgroups about vaccines. While over that time the claims supporting any link between MMR vaccine and autism were weak to non-existent, the science base that undermined the hypothesis Wakefield put forward has grown in size, including the epidemiological data and the virological data. So, that’s the science. The decision to strike off Wakefield adds nothing to this assessment, which could have been made years ago.

Although the science is clear, Wakefield’s reputation may well be important. Wakefield is a great communicator. He comes across well on the media. He is confident, and his mix of righteous concern about children, and persecution complex about the government, probably play well to a certain section of society. For that reason, his striking off from the GMC register for professional misconduct in relation to his research is important; he will become damaged goods. You don’t see many newspapers going to David Irving on matters of historical accuracy, since David Irving v Penguin Books and Deborah Lipstadt. It’s worth remembering that there have been accusations that Wakefield changed and manipulated his data, and was aware of negative reports in his work. He has also misrepresented epidemiological data about autism. The public though still see the case, as presented to them by the media, as competing scientific theories. Now, it may be the case that for the cult of Saint Wakefield, his striking off will give him a boost. His book, sickeningly playing on the words used by the GMC, Callous Disregard has even been been timed to make best use of the publicity. However, when it comes to the public, only the striking off may give the emphatic coda to this dismal tale that is needed.

Like a man caught in an avalanche, he has a brief period of time as the snow settles to try and claw his way to the surface. But that’s it. Apart from lecture tours in the US, where the anti-vaccine movement is proportionately bigger and hence able to sustain cranks, he is finished.

I used to think Wakefield was a man with genuine concerns, who painted himself into a corner and was unable to find a way out. As he continued to uphold his views in the face of increasing evidence undermining his hypothesis, and reports about his conflicts of interest and the scientific conduct of his work grew, I became more convinced that he was the major problem, and that the view that the media was mainly to blame was simplistic. It is undoubtedly the case that the media are poor at science reporting, and will often interpret sober science as scare stories. Most scientists find this dismaying and will attempt to correct it, but not Wakefield. He has been ever-present throughout this fiasco pushing his theory.

However, while Wakefield has gone, the media environment that allowed him to drive down vaccination rates continues to exist, and despite some notable individuals (The amazing Brian Deer, who has been targeted by the UK anti-vaccine movement for his pains) there has been little reflection on their role in the affair. Tom Chivers at The Telegraph is an exception today. In 2003 I blogged the results of a study into the media presentation of the MMR vaccine debate:

People have been misled by media reports that the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine could be unsafe, according to new research. A survey by Cardiff University claims that more than half of the British public wrongly believe that medical science opinion was split down the middle on the subject.

But in fact almost all scientific experts rejected the claim of a link between the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine and autism, said the research.

This morning, Today gave Andrew Wakefield an easy ride. Compared to the grilling politicians get, he had it easy. They have form. Last year, they allowed him on to accuse Simon Murch, a former colleague of his who was not struck off today, of being silenced by unseen forces. Even anti-establishment magazines, like Private Eye, bought into the conspiracy. The health editor of The Independent reports on Wakefield’s striking off, but fails to mention the role of the media. Most of the media is unrepentant, or has moved on and forgotten their role in the affair. So now Wakefield has gone, we are left with the same media swamp that allowed him to rampage on their pages.

There is some hope that the MMR vaccine scare has had a limited effect on the public perception of other vaccines, but swamps remain the favourite haunts of crocodiles.